Predicting the 2023 GRAMMYs.
artwork by Lily Agnacian.
It’s that time of year again! With the 65th Annual Grammy Award ceremony quickly approaching, it’s once again time for Firebird to dive into the nominations, discuss our personal picks, and predict which of our favorite artists will take home a gilded gramophone this year.
Album of the Year
Voyage, ABBA
30, Adele
Un Verano Sin Ti, Bad Bunny
RENAISSANCE, Beyoncé
Good Morning Gorgeous (Deluxe), Mary J. Blige
In These Silent Days, Brandi Carlile
Music Of The Spheres, Coldplay
Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers, Kendrick Lamar
Special, Lizzo
Harry’s House, Harry Styles
Who will win: RENAISSANCE, Beyoncé
Beyoncé should already be in possession of two Album of the Year awards. The Grammys were met with intense scrutiny when Beck’s Morning Phase won over Beyoncé’s self-titled project in 2015, and once again when Adele’s 25 won over the culture-shifting, genre-bending Lemonade. Despite being the female artist with the most Grammy wins and the artist with the most overall Grammy nominations (tied with her husband, Jay-Z), Beyoncé has only won once in the “Big Four” Grammy categories (a Song of the Year nod for “Single Ladies” in 2010). To put it quite simply, Queen B is long overdue for a win in this category, and assuming the Grammys have any sense of decorum and decency, they will award RENAISSANCE with the coveted Album of the Year title.
Who should win: RENAISSANCE, Beyoncé
RENAISSANCE may very-well be Beyoncé’s magnum opus. After a decades-long career and a six-year break since her last solo project, Beyoncé returned to the limelight in the summer of 2022 — this time, with an array of dance, house, disco, and R&B, all dipped and coated with influence from queer/ballroom culture. RENAISSANCE has a staggering amount of near-perfect tracks (e.g., the groovy, crowd-pleaser "CUFF IT”; the smooth and sensual “PLASTIC OFF THE SOFA”; the vogueable, ballroom anthem “PURE/HONEY”), but it was also a critical and commercial juggernaut. RENAISSANCE unified the masses through dance and self-love, so when accounting for this, along with its near-perfect production, vocals, and lyrical content, RENAISSANCE should be the obvious and only frontrunner in this category.
Who was snubbed: MOTOMAMI, ROSALÍA; Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe In You, Big Thief
Although it would have been a long shot to see two Spanish-language projects in the Album of the Year category (with Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti already earning a well-deserved nomination), ROSALÍA’s MOTOMAMI was an eclectic, groundbreaking body of reggaeton/art pop that could have easily replaced one of ten nominees. Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe In You is also a gorgeous body of work that sees Big Thief at their prime, although the Grammys rarely acknowledge projects like this when determining their “Big Four.”
Song of the Year
“abcdefu,” GAYLE
“About Damn Time,” Lizzo
“All Too Well (10 Minute Version) (The Short Film),” Taylor Swift
“As It Was,” Harry Styles
“Bad Habit,” Steve Lacy
“BREAK MY SOUL,” Beyoncé
“Easy On Me,” Adele
“GOD DID,” DJ Khaled featuring Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend & Fridayy
“The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar
“Just Like That,” Bonnie Raitt
Who will win: “Easy On Me,” Adele
Adele has not lost a single Grammy nomination in over a decade. Assuming the Grammys will correct 2017’s Lemonade-25 debacle with a win for Beyoncé in Album of the Year, it seems likely that they will follow suit with their previous tendencies and award Adele in all of the remaining categories she’s nominated in.
Who should win: “All Too Well (10 Minute Version) (The Short Film),” Taylor Swift
The ten-minute version of “All Too Well” is the culmination of Swift’s decade-and-a-half long career as a singer-songwriter and the leading pop superstar of the 21st century. Aside from the track’s massive success (something about a ten-minute version of a decade-old song ascending to #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 will always be monumental), “All Too Well (10 Minute Version)” sees Swift at her most vulnerable, beautifully unraveling the story of two lovers destined for heartbreak in this pop-country ode to lost love. “All Too Well” has been lauded by fans and critics alike as Swift’s magnum opus, and considering Swift’s shocking 0-win history in this category, I think it’s a fair request to grant the songwriter of our generation with the top songwriting award.
Who was snubbed: “Something in the Orange,” Zach Bryan
“Something in the Orange” is the rare country ballad that boasts effective lyricism and profound emotional acuity, so a nomination for Bryan in this category would have been well-deserved.
Record of the Year
“Don't Shut Me Down,” ABBA
“Easy On Me,” Adele
“BREAK MY SOUL,” Beyoncé
“Good Morning Gorgeous,” Mary J. Blige
“You And Me On The Rock,” Brandi Carlile featuring Lucius
“Woman,” Doja Cat
“Bad Habit,” Steve Lacy
“The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar
“About Damn Time,” Lizzo
“As It Was,” Harry Styles
Who will win: “Easy On Me,” Adele
Since the winner of Song of the Year usually goes on to win Record of the Year, another win for “Easy on Me” seems likely in this category.
Who should win: “As It Was,” Harry Styles; “About Damn Time,” Lizzo
Record of the Year is meant to highlight the production and performance on a designated track, and “As It Was” and “About Damn Time” were two of the best-produced, massively successful pop bangers released during the year of 2022. Styles, Lizzo, and the rest of the world had a blast with these two tracks, and it would be extremely refreshing to see a win for either of them in this category.
Who was snubbed: “Tití Me Preguntó,” Bad Bunny; “CUFF IT,” Beyoncé
Although Bad Bunny submitted “Después de la Playa” in this category, “Tití Me Preguntó” was an inescapable summer smash that perfectly encapsulates what it means to be the Record of the Year. The same can be said for Beyoncé’s “CUFF IT,” a euphoric, rollerskating disco anthem that deserved a place here over RENAISSANCE lead-single, “BREAK MY SOUL.”
Best New Artist
Anitta
Omar Apollo
DOMi & JD Beck
Muni Long
Samara Joy
Latto
Måneskin
Tobe Nwigwe
Molly Tuttle
Wet Leg
Who will win: Wet Leg
Although this is a bit of a wild card pick, I have this sneaking suspicion that Wet Leg will win Best New Artist this year (especially given their success in several of the other categories).
Who should win: Wet Leg
Amongst the ten nominees, I had a difficult time deciding who the winner should be. Best New Artist usually has an Olivia Rodrigo/Megan Thee Stallion-esque nominee that’s a no-brainer for the win, but due to a lack of big-name debuts/breakouts, this category felt a bit more underwhelming this year. Although Latto and Anitta bolstered moderate commercial success in 2022, I enjoyed Wet Leg’s project the most of the nominees, so I am hoping for a win for them.
Who was snubbed: MUNA; Rina Sawayama; Mitski
Although none of these three artists are technically “new,” the Grammys follow a completely warped and distorted set of guidelines for the Best New Artist category (for example, Lizzo debuting in 2013 but earning a Best New Artist nomination six years later in 2019). Given the flexibility of this category, I would have loved to have seen MUNA, Rina Sawayama, and Mitski present in this category due to the traction and acclaim they earned in 2022.
artwork by Lily Agnacian.
Best Pop Solo Performance
“Easy On Me,”Adele
“Moscow Mule,” Bad Bunny
“Woman,” Doja Cat
“Bad Habit,” Steve Lacy
“About Damn Time,” Lizzo
“As It Was,” Harry Styles
Who will win: “Easy On Me,” Adele
In typical Grammy-fashion, I am predicting yet another “Easy On Me” victory for Adele in this category.
Who should win: “As It Was,” Harry Styles; “About Damn Time,” Lizzo
For similar reasons to the Record of the Year category, I am rooting for a win in Best Pop Solo Performance for Hizzo (referring to Harry Styles and Lizzo’s iconic friendship). “As It Was” and “About Damn Time” were inescapable last year, and they truly deserve some Grammy-love for the mark they left in 2022.
Who was snubbed: “All Too Well (10 Minute Version) (The Short Film),” Taylor Swift; “American Teenager,” Ethel Cain
As a proud Taylor Swift superfan, I would have certainly loved to have seen the ten-minute version of “All Too Well” present in more categories this year. Ethel Cain’s “American Teenager” is also the perfect dream-pop high school anthem, although Cain may be too under the radar to pick up any Grammy traction anytime soon.
Best Pop Duo or Group Performance
“Don't Shut Me Down,” ABBA
“Bam Bam,” Camila Cabello featuring Ed Sheeran
“My Universe,” Coldplay & BTS
“I Like You (A Happier Song),” Post Malone & Doja Cat
“Unholy,” Sam Smith & Kim Petras
Who will win: “Unholy,” Sam Smith & Kim Petras
Although insufferable to most everyday music-listeners, “Unholy” had just enough TikTok virality and radio domination to earn itself this nomination and probable win. Kudos to Sam Smith for managing to score a #1 hit nearly a decade after their debut.
Who should win: “Don’t Shut Me Down,” ABBA
Similar to Best New Artist, this category feels especially lackluster when compared to the rest of the nominees. My personal pick is ABBA’s “Don’t Shut Me Down,” only because it’s the least offensive of the bunch.
Who was snubbed: “Home By Now,” MUNA
Although several tracks from MUNA’s self-titled album could have met the criteria for Best Pop Duo or Group Performance, “Home By Now” holds a special place in my heart. “Home By Now” is one of those feel-good, synth-pop anthems that hits especially hard after the end of a long day, and if the Grammys didn't continuously spam ABBA and Ed Sheeran throughout their nomination lists, the girl group may have very well earned their first Grammy nomination.
Best Pop Vocal Album
Voyage, ABBA
30, Adele
Music Of The Spheres, Coldplay
Special, Lizzo
Harry's House, Harry Styles
Who will win: 30, Adele
Who should win: 30, Adele
Although another Adele sweep may be imminent, this is the category she will and deserves to win in. Although sonically reminiscent of her first three studio albums, 30 finds Adele at her most lyrically poignant and self-assured. Tracks like “My Little Love,” “I Drink Wine,” and “Love Is A Game” are all show-stopping and incredible in typical Adele-fashion. 30 is, simply, the best album of the five nominees.
Who was snubbed: Hold the Girl, Rina Sawayama; CRASH, Charli XCX
Within the realm of 2022, Sawayama’s Hold the Girl and XCX’s CRASH stand out as two of the freshest, most innovative takes on pop music. Although these two have been snubbed time-and-time again by the Grammys, the pop connoisseur within me desperately clung onto the possibility of these projects being rightfully recognized.
artwork by Lily Agnacian.
The following commentary was done by Sha Frasier, our Editor-in-Chief!
Best Alternative Music Performance
“There'd Better Be A Mirrorball,” Arctic Monkeys
“Certainty,” Big Thief
“King,” Florence + The Machine
“Chaise Longue,” Wet Leg
“Spitting Off The Edge Of The World,” Yeah Yeah Yeahs featuring Perfume Genius
Who will win: “Spitting Off The Edge Of The World,” Yeah Yeah Yeahs featuring Perfume Genius
Who should win: “Spitting Off The Edge Of The World,” Yeah Yeah Yeahs featuring Perfume Genius
There’s not a bad choice here—all of these performances are stellar and showcase all of these artists at the top of their game. That being said, the bombshell collaboration between the Yeah Yeah Yeahs and Perfume Genius, “Spitting Off The Edge Of The World” has all the power of a cannon being fired. It’s a spectacular song, and giving it the win offers the Grammys the chance to award a legacy act the award while also recognizing a newer artist.
Who was snubbed: “Basketball Shoes,” Black Country, New Road
Ants from Up There is such a triumph that any song on the record could’ve been a worthy contender for this award, but “Basketball Shoes” closes the record in truly epic fashion, and the band’s cinematic performance featuring classic indie rock instrumentation along with horns and strings is not to be missed.
Best Alternative Music Album
WE, Arcade Fire
Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe In You, Big Thief
Fossora, Björk
Wet Leg, Wet Leg
Cool It Down, Yeah Yeah Yeahs
Who will win: Wet Leg, Wet Leg
Who should win: Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe In You, Big Thief
Wet Leg have received a great deal of placement on many publications’ year-end lists, and they have a lot of buzz going for them since 2022 was their breakout year, but Big Thief’s magnum opus blows these other albums out of the water and fully deserves the win.
Who was snubbed: Ants from Up There, Black Country, New Road; Blue Rev, Alvvays
To no one’s surprise, the Grammys opted to nominate most of the albums in this category based on the strength of the artists’ legacies, rather than the strength of the projects themselves. Arcade Fire, Björk, and the Yeah Yeah Yeahs are all legendary artists, but the albums that they put out this year are nowhere near their best work. It would have been nice to see the Grammys look towards the younger generations a little more and shine their spotlight on exciting and innovative bands like Black Country, New Road and Alvvays.
Best R&B Performance
“VIRGO’S GROOVE,” Beyoncé
“Here With Me,” Mary J. Blige featuring Anderson .Paak
“Hrs & Hrs,” Muni Long
“Over,” Lucky Daye
“Hurt Me So Good,” Jazmine Sullivan
Who will win: “VIRGO’S GROOVE,” Beyoncé
Who should win: “VIRGO’S GROOVE,” Beyoncé
Beyoncé’s performance on “VIRGO’S GROOVE” is a true tour-de-force, taking listeners on a 6-minute odyssey as she caters her performance to each section of the song and effortlessly executes peerless vocal runs. She’s the queen for a reason, and I don’t expect the Grammys to give this award to anyone else.
Who was snubbed: “PRICE OF FAME,” Brent Faiyaz
Brent Faiyaz deserved a nomination for the versatility he displays across this multi-part, six-minute long song in which he sings and raps with effortless cool.
Best R&B Song
“CUFF IT,” Beyoncé
“Good Morning Gorgeous,” Mary J. Blige
“Hrs & Hrs,” Muni Long
“Hurt Me So Good,” Jazmine Sullivan
“Please Don't Walk Away,” PJ Morton
Who will win: “CUFF IT,” Beyoncé
Who should win: “CUFF IT,” Beyoncé
Beyoncé’s team was smart to submit certain songs from Renaissance to the R&B categories, and her enduring popularity coupled with the cultural impact that songs like “CUFF IT” had ensure that this Grammy is hers.
Who was snubbed: “No Love,” Summer Walker & SZA
Surprisingly, the Grammys continue to show no love to Summer Walker, even as her popularity as an artist grows. I would’ve expected this collaboration between two R&B juggernauts to get nominated before some of the others on this list.
Best R&B Album
Good Morning Gorgeous (Deluxe), Mary J. Blige
Breezy (Deluxe), Chris Brown
Black Radio III, Robert Glasper
Candydrip, Lucky Daye
Watch The Sun, PJ Morton
Who will win: Good Morning Gorgeous (Deluxe), Mary J. Blige
Who should win: Black Radio III, Robert Glasper
The production of Black Radio III is a step above that of the other albums on this list, with Glasper’s signature piano playing on full display and a laundry list of features from names including Q-Tip and Ty Dolla $ign.
Who was snubbed: Natural Brown Prom Queen, Sudan Archives
The sorry state of R&B at the Grammys this year is reflected in this category. The most-recognized and discussed R&B album of the year, Sudan Archives’ Natural Brown Prom Queen, is nowhere to be found among these nominees, despite its lyricism, musicianship, and production being leagues above anything on this list.
Best Rap Performance
“GOD DID,” DJ Khaled featuring Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend & Fridayy
“Vegas,” Doja Cat
“pushin P,” Gunna & Future featuring Young Thug
“F.N.F. (Let's Go),” Hitkidd & GloRilla
“The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar
Who will win: “The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar
Who should win: “The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar
Kendrick Lamar’s technically masterful, head-spinning performance on “The Heart Part 5” is among the best rapping of the year, and that coupled with his status as a Grammy darling makes this award his and his alone.
Who was snubbed: “Cash In Cash Out,” Pharrell Williams featuring 21 Savage & Tyler, The Creator
21 Savage and Tyler, The Creator are both at the top of their game, each taking turns to demolish Pharrell’s minimalist, menacing beat built to shake floors and car trunks. This track is teeming with outlandishly creative flexes, outrageous boasts, and fun flow switch-ups, making each listen even better than the last.
Best Melodic Rap Performance
“BEAUTIFUL,” DJ Khaled featuring Future & SZA
“WAIT FOR U,” Future featuring Drake & Tems
“First Class,” Jack Harlow
“Die Hard,” Kendrick Lamar featuring Blxst & Amanda Reifer
“Big Energy (Live),” Latto
Who will win: “WAIT FOR U,” Future featuring Drake & Tems
Who should win: “WAIT FOR U,” Future featuring Drake & Tems
Since “Die Hard” was not one of the biggest singles from Mr. Morale, it’s less likely that Lamar will take this category as well as the others, where he has a much better shot, leaving the door open for Future and Drake to take this one and give Tems a much-deserved Grammy win.
Who was snubbed: “Super Freaky Girl,” Nicki Minaj
Nicki Minaj released her best song in years last year, and her whimsical rapping and the song’s bubblegum, earworm chorus should have made her an easy pick for this award.
Best Rap Song
“Churchill Downs,” Jack Harlow featuring Drake
“GOD DID,” DJ Khaled featuring Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend & Fridayy
“The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar
“pushin P,” Gunna & Future featuring Young Thug
“WAIT FOR U,” Future featuring Drake & Tems
Who will win: “The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar
Who should win: “The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar
Over an immaculate, danceable beat that samples Marvin Gaye’s “I Want You,” Lamar speaks on cancel culture, institutionalized racism, and raps from the perspective of the late Nipsey Hussle. This is the right choice for Best Rap Song this year.
Who was snubbed: “Talk,” Yeat
Nominating songs like “pushin P” and “Churchill Downs” feels like the Grammys’ attempt at showing some recognition on some newer hip-hop artists, but if they really wanted to recognize the current moment in hip-hop, they would shine a light on the rage scene and its current torchbearer, Yeat.
Best Rap Album
GOD DID, DJ Khaled
I Never Liked You, Future
Come Home The Kids Miss You, Jack Harlow
Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers, Kendrick Lamar
It's Almost Dry, Pusha T
Who will win: Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers, Kendrick Lamar
Who should win: Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers, Kendrick Lamar
Kendrick Lamar’s long-awaited follow-up to 2017’s DAMN. dominated the hip-hop conversation when it was released, and the immense critical acclaim and commercial success that the album received should make Best Rap Album an easy choice for the Grammys this year.
Who was snubbed: The Forever Story, JID
Something like this happens every year, so this isn’t a big surprise, but JID’s The Forever Story is a much better album than most of the albums that the Grammys actually nominated. By choosing to recognize creatively bankrupt projects like Jack Harlow’s debut over layered, thoughtful albums like The Forever Story, the Grammys have shown that they still can’t get their hip-hop awards right.
edited by Sha Frasier, Editor-in-Chief.
artwork by Lily Agnacian.
